Rents in regions fared well since Brexit vote, but slowdown looms

Annual rental growth in the UK without London is at its lowest point (1.16%) in nearly six years (1.13%, February 2013), according to the latest Landbay Rental Index, powered by MIAC.

However, since the vote to leave the European Union in June 2016, total rental growth across the English regions has been seven times that of London (3.69% to London’s 0.52%). The capital’s property market, which has suffered disproportionately from Brexit uncertainty, saw annual rental growth drop from 1.26% in June 2016 to a low of -0.31% in June 2017, before starting a slow recovery up to 0.67% in January 2019. In total, cumulative rental growth in London since June 2016 has been a mere 0.52%.

The only other region to see cumulative rental growth since the vote to leave the EU below 1% is the North East which has seen rents grow at 0.71%. In contrast, the East Midlands leads the way with growth of 6.28% since June 2016, followed by the West Midlands at 4.75%. The rental growth in England excluding London since the vote is 3.69%, down to 2.5% with London included.

Rental growth is slowing though. England excluding London has seen the lowest annual rental growth in six years (1.11% in January 2019, 1.07% in January 2013). Wales is currently at the lowest it’s been since April 2014 (1.39%) and in Northern Ireland growth of 0.54% is the slowest since the Rental Index began collecting data in January 2012.

Scotland, however, has seen annual rents grow at 1.66%, having steadily grown over the last six months. The average rent in Scotland is now £746, higher than Northern Ireland (£573), Wales (£656), and creeping up to the English average excluding London (£776). This Scottish growth is led by high annual growth in Edinburgh City (5.88%), Inverclyde (3.56%), and Glasgow City (2.49%), while Aberdeen City (-6.62%) and Aberdeenshire (-5.42%) are weighing down on faster national average growth.

John Goodall, CEO and founder of Landbay said:

“Falling rents in London have masked relatively strong growth in the rest of the UK since the Brexit vote, but we are now firmly in the midst of a nationwide rental growth slowdown. This may be some relief to renters, but the cost of renting a property remains high. House prices continue to outpace wage growth, dampening the ability of aspiring homeowners to save for a property of their own, meaning demand for rented accommodation remains robust.

“Without a radical house building plan for both first-time buyers and purpose-built rental properties, there is no way supply will ever be able to catch up with demand. The government needs to take action fast, especially in times of economic and political uncertainty the private rental sector is more important than ever.”

“Rental growth may be slowing, but the pace of change varies wildly between regions. Landlords and brokers alike need to be tuned into these variations in order to maximise their profits, using variations in rental growth and yields over the past year to pick out some of the most promising regions for buy-to-let. Consistent rental demand will obviously drive returns in the long-term, but by selecting the right location yields will be even greater.”

Landbay Rental Index, powered by MIAC: Countries (All Beds)

January 2019YoYMoMAv. £
UK0.99%0.08%1,215
UK without London1.16%0.08%770
England0.95%0.08%1,246
England without London1.11%0.08%776
Scotland1.66%0.13%746
Wales1.39%0.02%656
London0.67%0.08%1,902
Northern Ireland0.54%-0.07%573

Landbay Rental Index, powered by MIAC: Regions (All Beds)

January 2019YoYMoMAv. £
East England1.04%0.08%919
East Midlands2.16%0.15%639
London0.67%0.08%1,902
North East0.02%-0.02%553
North West1.03%0.08%626
South East0.77%0.03%1,062
South West1.29%0.10%758
West Midlands1.46%0.10%696
Yorkshire and Humberside1.38%0.11%585

Landbay Rental Index, powered by MIAC: Countries by Number of Beds

January 2019One bedTwo bedThree bed
YoYMoMAv. £YoYMoMAv. £YoYMoMAv. £
UK1.08%0.09%1,0331.07%0.10%1,1760.94%0.06%1,350
UK exc. London1.20%0.08%6091.22%0.10%7261.11%0.06%839
England1.03%0.08%1,0661.02%0.10%1,2110.94%0.06%1,371
England exc. London1.11%0.07%6151.16%0.10%7291.13%0.07%835
Scotland2.14%0.20%5661.80%0.15%7100.55%0.02%1,138
Wales1.00%0.00%5541.34%0.02%6711.36%0.04%628
London0.93%0.09%1,4730.77%0.10%1,9490.42%0.03%2,710
Northern Ireland0.63%0%4450.89%0.04%5570.65%-0.21%587

Landbay Rental Index, powered by MIAC: Cumulative growth since June 2016

January 2019Rental growth since June 2016
England2.50%
England exc. London3.69%
East Midlands6.28%
West Midlands4.75%
East England4.32%
South West4.22%
Yorkshire and Humberside3.91%
North West3.40%
South East2.64%
North East0.71%
London0.52%